The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) recently released its Trade Conditions Survey for October 2024, providing insights into the current trade landscape. Below is a simplified overview of the key findings.

1. Sluggish Trade Conditions

   • Only about a third of respondents reported positive trade conditions in October 2024, mirroring the levels of the previous year.

   • The Trade Activity Index (TAI), indicated mounting pressure on trade showed a sharp decline from 42 in May to 34 in October.

2. Decline in Sales and Orders

   • Sales volumes dropped by 32% from July to October. New orders also fell from over 33% during the same period, signaling weakening demand.

3. Businesses Absorbing Higher Costs

   • Input costs rose at a higher rate (by 11 index points) between September and October, while selling prices only increased by 2 points, indicating that businesses have been absorbing rising costs rather than passing them to consumers.

   • We can expect both input costs and sales prices to rise further over the next six months.

4. Employment Challenges

   • Employment in the trade sector remains subdued, with only 32% of respondents hiring in October and a reduced hiring outlook for the next six months.

5. Economic Context Remains Positive

   • Despite challenging conditions, some positive year-on-year trade data was observed:

     • 3.2% increase in retail sales volumes

     • 2.6% increase in merchandise exports, while imports fell by 6.8%.

   • Inflation trends have slowed, with consumer inflation at 3.8% and producer inflation at 0.9% in September. A reduction in interest rates could potentially stimulate demand and improve trade.

The report serves as a valuable tool for accountants advising clients in trade and retail sectors. Staying informed about these trends can help businesses navigate cost pressures and plan strategically for the coming months.

For more detailed insights, visit SACCI’s website or contact their offices.