Global Economic Outlook 2025: What We Need to Know
The 2025 Global Economic Outlook Report issued by ACCA highlights a slow-down of the global economy and rising uncertainty due to shifting trade policies, political changes, and financial market instability. While global growth is expected to stay at 3.2%, risks remain high—especially with the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the introduction of new trade restrictions and tariffs.
Key Global Trends to Watch
The US economy strong but risky for trade as it is expected to grow faster than other developed countries, but potential tariffs and trade barriers could disrupt international business.
Europe’s slow growth and China’s weaker demand may hurt global trade, affecting countries that export to them—including South Africa.
India is leading emerging markets expecting to grow the fastest, boosted by exports and infrastructure investment.
Inflation is slowing down in many countries, but US fiscal problems and geopolitical conflicts could push prices back up.
AI adoption is growing, but its real economic benefits are still unclear. Some governments are also scaling back climate policies due to economic pressures.
What This Means for South Africa
Trump’s trade policies could hurt exports. Trump may cut South Africa out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade deal, which expires in September 2025. This would make it harder and more costly for SA businesses to export to the US, affecting industries like automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing.
Stronger US Dollar, weaker Rand resulting from uncertainty around global markets, which would make imports more expensive for South African businesses.
Slower demand for SA’s exports as China and Europe slowing down and South Africa may see less demand for key exports like minerals and raw materials.
Inflation and energy costs still a concern. Due geopolitical tensions and oil price swings could increase costs for businesses, especially in transport and manufacturing.
Opportunities in AI and infrastructure as AI and digital transformation are growing globally, and South Africa has a chance to position itself as a leader in smart technology and infrastructure development.
What Should South African Accountants Do?
Watch AGOA trade discussions and help clients explore alternative export strategies in case the deal ends.
Prepare for currency fluctuations by advising businesses on hedging and financial risk management.
Track global inflation trends to anticipate interest rate changes in South Africa.
Encourage AI adoption and guide businesses on digital finance and sustainability opportunities.
Final Thoughts
The world economy is facing uncertainty, and South Africa is not immune to these changes. CIBA accountants must remain informed, proactive, and adaptable to help businesses navigate financial risks and seize new opportunities in 2025.
